Wall Street will receive updates this week on several important issues, with the health of the U.S. economy taking center stage.
Officials are set to release the latest inflation figures, including the first reading since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates on September 16. The August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data reflects conditions before the rate hike, but it could still shape expectations for future monetary policy because PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Last Week Market Recap:
Equities advanced last week despite a sharp rise in Treasury yields. The S&P 500 gained 1.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.1%, even as the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.2%, its highest level since 2007 and the 30-year yield surpassed 5.5% for the first time since 2004.
Optimism surrounding the broad adoption of Meta Platforms’ new Muse personal AI agent revived enthusiasm for artificial-intelligence stocks. The iShares Semiconductor ETF climbed 7.4%, while Meta shares surged 12.9% for the week and have gained 21.9% since Muse was launched on September 8.
This Week’s Key Earnings and Economic Events:
The upcoming economic calendar will focus on two key releases: the September jobs report, due Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, scheduled for Wednesday. FactSet estimates call for nonfarm payrolls to rise by 100,000, including an 80,000 increase in private-sector jobs, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%.
Core PCE inflation, included in the personal income and outlays report, is projected to increase 0.28% from the previous month. That would lift the annual core inflation rate to 3.4%, up from 3.3%, suggesting that underlying price pressures may prove more persistent than policymakers would prefer.
Investors will also closely follow speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Michael Barr, Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, Michelle Bowman and Phillip Jefferson. Their remarks, combined with the incoming data, could reshape expectations for an October 28 rate hike, currently assigned a 64% probability, and for a total of 50 basis points in additional increases by year-end scenario markets currently view as roughly even odds.
Key Market Catalysts to Watch This Week:
Reuters Poll: U.S. Job Growth Expected to Slow in September
Investors will closely monitor the latest U.S. employment and inflation data in the coming week for clues about the economy’s strength and the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate decision. Stronger-than-expected figures could encourage policymakers to pursue a more aggressive tightening path, potentially putting further pressure on the stock market’s rally.
September’s non-farm payrolls report, due Friday, is expected to be Wall Street’s main focus following the previous month’s stronger-than-anticipated reading, which helped cement the Fed’s first-rate hike in three years. Economists expect payrolls to increase by 100,000, while the unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.2%.
Wednesday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index will provide further insight into whether persistent inflation is moving toward the Fed’s 2% annual target. Futures markets currently imply roughly even odds of another quarter-point rate hike in October, while a recent survey showing that businesses’ input costs rose to a nearly four-year high has added to concerns about continued price pressures.
Markets Await Micron Earnings for Signals on Memory-Chip Demand
As the third quarter draws to an end, the earnings season is entering a quieter stretch. Micron Technology’s fiscal fourth-quarter results, due late Wednesday, are expected to be the week’s most significant corporate report.
Analysts anticipate that the memory-chip maker will deliver its seventh consecutive quarter of triple-digit earnings growth, with strong expansion expected to continue for at least two more quarters. Revenue is also projected to accelerate for a fifth straight quarter, fueled by robust demand for memory chips and storage systems used in AI-driven data centers.
Developers Take the Spotlight at OpenAI’s Annual DevDay
OpenAI is set to host its annual DevDay at San Francisco’s Fort Mason on Tuesday, where CEO Sam Altman will deliver the keynote at 10 a.m. PT. Following the recent launch of its GPT-6 Astra model family, the company is expected to focus primarily on developer tools, applications, and agent-building capabilities rather than unveil another flagship model.
Investors will be watching for announcements related to autonomous AI agents, which could influence software stocks. On Sept. 10, OpenAI introduced its Agents API, a managed service that enables businesses to develop and operate AI agents capable of carrying out complex, multistep tasks across traditional software applications.
Tesla Set to Finally Unveil Its Long-Awaited Roadster
Tesla is reportedly set to unveil the newest version of its long-awaited Roadster next Thursday, potentially ending nearly a decade of delays and speculation surrounding the electric sports car. The event would mark the company’s third major product presentation in about a month, following recent showcases for the Cybercab and Tesla Semi.
Expectations have grown ahead of the reveal, with rumors pointing to an even more ambitious design and performance package. The most striking speculation suggests that SpaceX-developed thrusters could help give the Roadster limited flying capabilities, though Tesla has not confirmed the reports.
SpaceX’s Massive Starship Moves Closer to Launch test
SpaceX plans to launch Starship’s delayed 14th mission on Monday, carrying 26 third-generation Starlink satellites. The flight would be a significant milestone for the program as its first mission to transport a revenue-generating commercial payload into orbit.
Speaking at the Sept. 14 All-In Summit, CEO Elon Musk said the company may try to catch both the Starship vehicle and Super Heavy booster during Flight 15, which is expected later this year. Successfully completing the maneuver would advance SpaceX’s goal of creating a fully reusable launch system and support Musk’s ambition of reaching 10,000 Starship flights annually by 2030. ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood has projected that such a launch rate could produce up to $10 trillion in annual revenue.