Inflation Data, Apple’s Fall Event and Oracle Earnings Set to Drive Markets This Week

Inflation Data, Apple’s Fall Event and Oracle Earnings Set to Drive Markets This Week

U.S. inflation data, the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision and developments in the Iran war are expected to drive global markets this week. U.S. markets will be closed Monday for Labor Day, while investors will monitor August CPI and PPI data, weekly jobless claims, existing-home sales and preliminary September readings on University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. Federal Reserve officials will also enter their blackout period ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Last Week Market Recap

After posting gains in August, major U.S. indexes finished last week mixed. The S&P 500 edged up 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.4%, supported by a late-week rally in AI-related stocks ahead of the long holiday weekend, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.3%. Equities fell early in the week as government bond yields climbed to more than 15-year highs in the U.S., Germany and Japan.

Markets rebounded Thursday after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated he favored keeping interest rates steady in September, pushing yields lower and lifting stocks. However, Treasury yields moved higher again Friday following the release of the government’s August jobs report, limiting the week’s gains. Crude oil prices also advanced as the war involving Iran continued.

This Week’s Key Earnings and Economic Events

Wall Street’s focus will center on the latest inflation figures, which could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September policy decision. The CPI and PPI reports are due ahead of the Fed’s September 15–16 meeting and are likely to offer fresh insight into the direction of consumer and producer prices.

The data will carry added significance after the U.S. economy delivered a stronger-than-expected August employment report. Employers added 162,000 jobs during the month, well above economists’ forecasts, boosting expectations for a September rate hike. Investors will therefore scrutinize the inflation readings for signs that price pressures are continuing to ease or remain persistent.

Ahead of Friday’s inflation and consumer sentiment reports, investors will focus on earnings from Casey’s General Stores, American Eagle Outfitters, Macy’s, Adobe, and Oracle. Apple will also draw attention with its annual product launch event, where new iPhone models are expected to be unveiled.

Key Market Catalysts to Watch This Week

Inflation Report to Test Rate-Hike Expectations

Markets have been focused on the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate increase at its September 15–16 meeting. Expectations strengthened after recent hawkish comments from Fed officials and a stronger-than-anticipated labor-market report, though the prospect of a hike remains uncertain. Investors are now looking to the Consumer Price Index report due September 11, the market’s most closely watched inflation indicator. The data could determine whether the Fed’s repeated commitment to price stability is followed by policy action, particularly if inflation shows limited progress.

Investors Brace for September Volatility

The S&P 500 has climbed nearly 13% in 2026, fueled by robust corporate earnings. However, investors remain cautious as September has historically been the weakest month for U.S. stocks. With second-quarter earnings season largely over, concerns about bond-market instability and escalating tensions in the Middle East are adding to uncertainty surrounding the equity outlook.

PPI and CPI to Clarify August Inflation Trends

Producer-price data will offer investors an early look at August inflation during the holiday-shortened trading week, with U.S. markets closed Monday for Labor Day. The Producer Price Index is due Thursday, one day before the closely watched Consumer Price Index report.

Economists surveyed by Reuters expect headline CPI to rise 0.4% in August, while core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is projected to increase 0.2%. Inflation has remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target for several years, although the previous CPI report showed that consumer prices had barely risen.

Rate-Hike Expectations Rebound After Strong Jobs Data

Expectations for an interest-rate hike initially declined after Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated he would support keeping rates unchanged if upcoming data confirmed that inflationary pressures were easing. However, those expectations climbed again on Friday after August employment increased by 162,000 jobs nearly three times economists’ forecasts. Fed funds futures later reflected a 57% probability of a rate hike at the central bank’s next meeting.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.78% late Friday, approaching the 5% threshold that investors have identified as a potential risk for equities. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury is scheduled to begin a larger program of longer-term debt buybacks next week. Announced last month, the initiative is viewed as an effort to ease upward pressure on Treasury yields.

OPEC+ Holds October Oil Output Steady

OPEC+ will maintain current oil production levels in October, pausing a six-month series of output increases as the group turns its attention to setting new production quotas for 2027. The decision was announced after Sunday’s meeting.

The pause comes as the ongoing war involving Iran disrupts crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting the influence OPEC+ supply decisions can have on oil prices and the group’s market share.

Seven members Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman—agreed last month to raise output by roughly 188,000 barrels per day in September. That increase completed the gradual reversal of 1.65 million barrels per day in voluntary cuts introduced in 2023. However, actual production remains below official targets because of the conflict and wider disruptions to regional oil flows, meaning the impact of previous increases on physical supply has been more limited than headline quotas suggest.

Apple’s Fall Event May Unveil Its First Foldable

Apple will host its annual fall product launch event on Wednesday, reportedly titled “Surprise and Shine,” where it is expected to introduce its first foldable smartphone, the iPhone Ultra, featuring a book-style design that opens to reveal a mini tablet-like display. The company is also likely to unveil the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, which could carry higher prices amid rising memory-chip costs, along with updated AirPods and Apple Watch models.

Adobe Expected to Beat Estimates as Oracle Gains Momentum Ahead of Earnings

Adobe is expected to report fiscal third-quarter results after Thursday’s market close on Sept. 10, with analysts forecasting revenue of $6.69 billion and earnings of $4.48 per share. Citi analyst Tyler Radke believes the software company could surpass expectations, although he remains cautious about its longer-term growth prospects.

Radke raised his Adobe price target to $301 from $228, citing higher valuations across technology stocks rather than an improvement in the company’s fundamentals. The earnings report will come as the June-quarter reporting season draws to a close, with Oracle also scheduled to release its fiscal first-quarter results that day.

Oracle shares rose for a third consecutive session Friday, supported by investor enthusiasm surrounding OpenAI’s rollout of its GPT-6 “Astra” model and positive analyst commentary. Morgan Stanley analysts modestly increased their Oracle price target in a client note, adding to optimism ahead of the company’s earnings announcement.