Fed Minutes and Big Retail Earnings Set the Tone for Markets

Key Things to Watch This Week

Now that inflation has eased somewhat, are consumers still relying on coupons and cutting back on gas purchases?

Investors will get a clearer view of household spending this week as Walmart, Target, and Home Depot report quarterly results, with Walmart scheduled to hold its second-quarter earnings call on August 20, 2026. The reports come as consumer sentiment has weakened despite a recent cooling in inflation, while stagnant hiring and wages that have struggled to keep pace with living costs continue to pressure households.

Investors are also watching for signs that inflation could reaccelerate. Elevated energy prices and stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations have fueled concerns that oil markets could surge, adding to pressure on consumer prices and bond yields.

Last Week Market Recap

All three major U.S. stock indexes finished last week in positive territory despite a sharp sell-off early in the week. Markets began recovering Wednesday after federal data showed inflation cooled in July, easing concerns that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates. Strong earnings from CoreWeave and Super Micro Computer also boosted AI and technology stocks. The gains came despite a subdued Friday session.

This Week’s Key Earnings and Economic Events

Investors are heading into a pivotal week centered on consumer, monetary policy, and economic growth. Earnings from Home Depot, Target, TJX Companies, and Walmart should provide a broad view of spending trends across different income groups.

The Federal Reserve will release minutes from Wednesday’s FOMC meeting at 2 p.m., offering insight into Chair Kevin Warsh’s policy discussions and officials’ assessment of inflation and recent economic data. On Thursday, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and initial jobless claims will provide additional readings on industrial activity and labor-market conditions.

Friday’s preliminary August purchasing managers’ indexes for the manufacturing and services sectors will round out the week’s data. Together, the retail results, Fed minutes, and economic indicators could shape market expectations as investors look ahead to the Jackson Hole policy discussions and possible changes in the Fed’s stance.

Key Market Catalysts to Watch This Week

Walmart, Target, and Home Depot Reports Set to Test the Strength of Household Spending 

Retail earnings this week will assess consumer resilience across income groups. Home Depot (HD) reports on Tuesday, followed by Target (TGT) and (TJX) on Wednesday and Walmart (WMT) on Thursday. Investors will focus on traffic, basket sizes, trade-down behavior, contractor demand, and grocery inflation. Strong results would signal durable spending, while weak guidance could reinforce concerns about an economic slowdown.

FOMC Minutes: Policy Framework and Economic Outlook in Focus 

Wednesday’s 2:00 p.m. FOMC minutes will offer insight into Fed Chair Warsh’s views on inflation, growth, financial stability, tech-sector repricing, and geopolitical energy risks. Hawkish commentary could weigh on equities, while dovish signals may support tech stocks and sector rotation. The minutes will help frame expectations ahead of the August 27–29 Jackson Hole symposium.

Key Economic Reports to Reveal Strength of Factory Activity and Hiring

Thursday’s Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and jobless claims will gauge industrial activity and labor-market health. Friday’s preliminary August Manufacturing and Services PMI will provide forward-looking growth signals. Strong data could support Fed caution, while weakness may revive recession concerns and bolster expectations for policy easing ahead of Jackson Hole.

Retail Earnings Take Center Stage as Investors Test Consumer Spending Resilience 

This week’s retail earnings, along with Alibaba’s (BABA) results Thursday, will offer a broad view of consumer spending and the economic outlook. Walmart (WMT) will show whether value-seeking is intensifying, while Alibaba will reflect Asian demand amid trade and geopolitical uncertainty. Resilient spending could ease growth concerns and support tech stocks; widespread weakness could heighten stagflation fears and pressure Fed policy expectations.

Investors Monitor Oil Markets for Signals on Growth and Inflation

Wednesday’s 10:30 a.m. crude inventory report will offer insight into supply-demand conditions amid Middle East tensions. Any escalation could quickly lift oil prices, reignite inflation, and limit Fed Chair Warsh’s policy flexibility. While current prices reflect a moderate geopolitical premium, they remain vulnerable to sharp moves. A diplomatic resolution could stabilize energy markets and ease inflation pressures.