SPCX Q3 2026 Earnings Preview
SpaceX is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results after the U.S. market closes on October 20. The consensus estimates forecast revenues of $12.89 billion to $13.0 billion, with AI infrastructure contracts expected to overtake Starlink as the highest revenue-generating segment. Meanwhile, analysts expect adjusted earnings per share of $0.14 to $0.17, which would represent a return to profitability.
In addition to revenues, investors will be watching SpaceX’s capital expenditures, which are budgeted at $19.61 billion, and expected negative free cash flow of $11.6 billion. Among the metrics to focus on are the margins in AI revenue, cash burn, and Starlink performance. The Wall Street price target for the stock is $216 according to an average of 12-month projections.
Key Takeaways:
Consecutive earnings results have put a spotlight on Elon Musk’s two companies: The SpaceX earnings on a Tuesday and the Tesla reports on a Wednesday, giving investors a side-by-side look at the companies, as merger rumors stir.
Investors are hoping to see if the companies’ core operations can fund the anticipated increases in artificial intelligence: Starlink’s rising sales and Tesla’s blooming automobile margins are important indicators, as is SpaceX’s ability to monetize its substantial investment in AI.
Merger talks: There has not been an official confirmation of a deal between the two companies, nor has either side indicated any interest in pursuing one, although Tesla mentioned in the letter to shareholders that its annual meeting would take place on Dec. 3.
Overlapping ambitions: The two companies have demonstrated a willingness to collaborate, with Tesla unveiling a Roadster for 2028 that uses some of the technology developed by SpaceX, and SpaceX purchasing xAI, Musk’s artificial intelligence company, earlier this year.
SpaceX’s business involves rockets, connectivity and also computer processors related to AI: Starlink’s sales increased by 66 percent in the second quarter, generating $4.3 billion, and SpaceX has agreed to purchase spectrum for Starlink Mobile, pending approval from regulators.
Key Areas of Focus:
A focal point of attention for SpaceX's quarterly results will be its newly formed AI division, SpaceXSI. The division reported an operating loss of $1.26 billion, below the estimated $2.39 billion last quarter, compared to $15.8 billion more than expected and up from $7.7 billion in AI spending in the first quarter.
Analysts will be monitoring whether spending accelerates as SpaceX constructs data centers like Colossus and develops AI products such as Grok and Grok Bot. The company's ability to fund its infrastructure build-out through financing arrangements is also a concern.
SpaceX may also provide an updated view of annual recurring revenue that reflects recent AI compute deals. CFO Bret Johnsen projected last month that the company is on track to generate $100 billion in ARR by year-end. In its connectivity business, which includes Starlink, analysts expect revenue of $4.45 billion in ARR and $1.66 billion in operating profit.
Rocket launches are another area of interest, as SpaceX is planning a Falcon 9 launch early Tuesday and Starship missions 15 and 16 in early November and potentially near year-end, respectively. A successful Starship catch during either mission would represent a significant milestone for the company.
Analysts Expectation:
RBC Capital reiterated an Outperform rating on SpaceX (SPCX) with a price target of $225.00.
Evercore ISI analysts raised the price target on SpaceX (SPCX) to $275.00 (from $230.00) while maintaining an Outperform rating.
Morgan Stanley analysts reiterated an Overweight rating and $300.00 price target on SpaceX (SPCX).
SHARIAH Compliance Metrics
SPCX fails Business Activity Screening on Musaffa Shariah screening parameters based on AAOIFI methodology as of Q2 2026 report.
Business Activity 86.34% Halal, Doubtful is 9.43%, and non-Halal is 4.23%.
Interest-bearing securities and assets = 5.37% (Shariah-complaint is < 30%).
Interest-bearing debt = 2.10% (Shariah-complaint is < 30%).
https://musaffa.com/stock/SPCX/ a more detailed view.
SPCX Q3 2026 earnings after market (4:00 pm ET) October 20, 2026
